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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1443Z Feb 19, 2015)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
943 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 19 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW CONFINES TO CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE EAST OF
50W AND NORTH OF 25W...WHILE ANCHORING ON TWO CLOSED HIGHS...WITH
ONE NEAR 13S 85W AND THE OTHER AT 11S 68W. A TUTT LOW TO THE EAST
CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 15S 30W. BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TUTT LOW. THIS
IS VENTING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
BRASIL. THE RIDGE IS ALSO VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
JUNGLE OF PERU...ACRE/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL...RORAIMA TO MATO GROSSO.

AT 250 HPA THE SOUTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 53S 120W...66S 110W...70S
99W...69S 81W...61S 71W...EXITING AT 55S 67W. IT REFORMS AT 52S
54W...ALONG 57S 45W...60S 33W...57S 16W...EXITING AT 55S 07W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 48S 119W...A 139KT MAXIMUM AT 52S
115W...A 148KT MAXIMUM AT 57S 109W...63S 97W...A 133KT MAXIMUM AT
58S 80W...EXITING AT 45S 74W. THE JET REFORMS AT 33S 66W...ALONG A
127KT MAXIMUM AT 44S 55W...A 149KT MAXIMUM AT 53S 46W...55S
40W...A 136KT MAXIMUM AT 55S 30W...51S 17W...EXITING AT 50S 03W.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 55S 90W...THEN ALONG 50S
82W...EXITING AT 45S 80W. IT REFORMS TO THE NORTH NEAR 30S
92W...ALONG 27S 81W...EXITING AT 25S 68W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A CLOSED HIGH
NEAR 34S 105W...ALONG 55S 95W...TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. EAST OF
THIS RIDGE A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 80W-40W TO
30S. THE TROUGH IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARGENTINA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
BRASIL...WHERE IT IS PROVIDING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THAT ANCHORS ON A 1033 HPA HIGH AT 43S 92W. AN
ELONGATED FRONT TO THE EAST EXTENDS ALONG A 1010 HPA LOW AT 47S
66W...CENTRAL PATAGONIA...PUERTO MONTT CHILE...45S 77W...49S
78W...A 1012 HPA LOW AT 52S 76W...57S 77W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 62S
83W...62S 91W...A 988 HPA LOW AT 61S 104W. ANOTHER FRONT TO THE
EAST EXTENDS ALONG A 988 HPA LOW AT 47S 49W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT
42S 52W...RIO DE LA PLATA TO NORTHERN MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA. THIS
SUSTAINS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND NORTH ORIGINATES ON AN
OCCLUDED 1006 HPA LOW AT 44S 25W...A 1016 HPA LOW AT 44S 20W...39S
24W...35S 31W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 33S 39W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 30S
45W...TO SANTA CATARINA IN BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)