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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1403Z Nov 13, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
903 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 13 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINES TO CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20S
AND WEST OF 50W...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHERN
BOLIVIA. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SACZ...AS IT EXTENDS FROM ESPIRITO SANTO/MINAS GERAIS TO
NORTHERN BOLIVIA/SOUTHERN PERU. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
CLUSTERING TO THE WEST OF 60W...AFFECTING BOLIVIA-SOUTHERN PERU
AND AMAZONAS/ACRE IN WESTERN BRASIL.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
54S 119W...ALONG 57S 104W...57S 82W...A 148KT MAXIMUM AT 54S
68W...EXITING AT 51S 52W. IT HAS A BRANCH TO THE NORTH WITH AXIS
ALONG 42S 120W...49S 112W...A 154KT MAXIMUM AT 54S 90W...51S
72W...EXITING AT 43S 63W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 34S
120W...A 148KT MAXIMUM AT 44S 112W...50S 94W...48S 81W...EXITING
AT 44S 75W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH HAS A BRANCH WITH
ENTRANCE AT 32S 73W...ALONG 30S 62W...31S 54W...EXITING AT 34S
46W. IT REFORMS AT 24S 73W...ALONG 23S 64W...26S 46W...EXITING AT
26S 35W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH AXIS
SOUTH BETWEEN 105W-80W TO 55S. THIS FAVORS A TIGHT BELT OF UPPER
LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE-TIERRA DEL
FUEGO/THE DRAKE PASSAGE. EAST OF THIS AXIS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG
WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN 70W-40W TO 25S. SHORT WAVE VORTICES
REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS...WITH ONE PULLING ACROSS CENTRAL CHILE
AS ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH URUGUAY TO SOUTHERN BRASIL. A RIDGE TO
THE EAST LIES NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG 20W TO 70S.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM EXTENDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS IT CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH AT 37S 86W.
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...POLAR FRONTS ARE STREAMING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CHILE/ PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA...WITH ONE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1006
HPA LOW AT 50S 77W...48S 77W...47S 82W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 51S
85W...50S 88W...50S 95W...A 990 HPA LOW AT 49S 107W...46S
107W...42S 110W... AND 37S 115W. ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERS
ON A 1019 HPA HIGH AT 38S 58W. A POLAR FRONT BOUNDS THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AS IT EXTENDS ALONG A 1000
HPA LOW AT 48S 38W...44S 40W...39S 43W...36S 48W...A 1010 HPA LOW
AT 35S 51W...NORTHERN URUGUAY TO 29S 66W.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)