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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1452Z Dec 15, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM DECEMBER 15 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH NOW CENTERS OVER EASTERN BOLIVIA...ANCHORING A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENT. THIS IS VENTING ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS BRASIL-PARAGUAY-BOLIVIA-PERU.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH AXIS ALONG
53S 120W...A 121KT MAXIMUM AT 56S 110W...EXITING AT 52S 96W. IT
HAS A FINGER TO THE EAST THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN 55S 83W AND 60S 67W.
IT REFORMS AT 62S 58W...ALONG 48S 35W...A 140KT MAXIMUM AT 48S
17W...EXITING AT 52S 04W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS A FINGER THAT
EXTENDS BETWEEN 49S 105W AND 47S 91W. IT REFORMS AT 51S
57W...EXITING AT 38S 44W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT
25S 89W...ALONG 25S 82W...SANTIAGO DE CHILE...BUENOS
AIRES...EXITING AT 22S 40W.

AT 500 HPA...A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW CENTERS NEAR 63S 108W. THIS
EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 50S 90W...TO 42S 93W. THIS IS
SLOWLY PHASING WITH ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AS THE LATTER
EXTENDS FROM ISLA DE CHILOE IN SOUTHERN CHILE...ALONG 40S
75W...30S 80W...TO 23S 90W. A RIDGE LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS
SOUTH ALONG 60W TO THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
AXIS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 60S 30W...50S 35W...35S
40W...TO SAO PAULO.

AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATES
THE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC AS IT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED
970 HPA LOW AT 67S 108W. POLAR FRONTS REVOLVE AROUND THIS
AXIS...WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM AN OCCLUDED 970 HPA LOW AT 66S
79W...THEN ALONG A 980 HPA LOW AT 63S 64W...61S 58W...60S 63W...A
984 HPA LOW AT 61S 69W...58S 73W...56S 82W...A 1000 HPA LOW AT 54S
88W...WEAKENING ALONG 46S 89W. ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES
ALONG A 998 HPA LOW AT 53S 50W...54S 56W...57S 71W...A 1006 HPA
LOW AT 50S 84W...47S 83W...44S 85W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT 40S
89W...36S 91W...TO 33S 97W.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)