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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1343Z Aug 14, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
943 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM AUGUST 14 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...AN ILL ORGANIZED CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONFINES TO CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10S. THIS IS
VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS/ACRE IN BRASIL AS CELLS
CLUSTER ALONG A NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL WAVE. PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN-CENTRAL BRASIL...MEANWHILE...SUSTAINS A
STRONG TRADE WINDS CAP THAT IS INHIBITING ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

THE 250 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT 55S
93W...ALONG 57S 74W...A 134KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 60W...42S
51W...EXITING AT 38S 45W. IT REFORMS AT 38S 41W...ALONG 39S
35W...47S 25W...A 164KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 19W...AND 50S 03W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 35S 120W...A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 37S
110W...EXITING AT 37S 88W. IT REFORMS AT 31S 50W...ALONG A 143KT
MAXIMUM AT 32S 40W...35S 35W...A 171KT MAXIMUM AT 38S 30W...44S
20W...AND 45S 07W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 17S
95W...ALONG 21S 85W...EXITING AT 25S 72W. IT REFORMS AT 27S
65W...ALONG 27S 54W...27S 45W...30S 37W...37S 25W...39S
03W...EXITING AT 30S 02W.

AT 500 HPA...A DEEP TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENTERED THE
BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA AS IT CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 68S 105W.
THIS IS PHASING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AS THE
LATTER EXTENDS ALONG 88W/90W. A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE TO
THE EAST EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 70W TO THE DRAKE PASSAGE/ANTARCTIC
PENINSULA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT BOUNDS BETWEEN 60W-25W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 20S...WITH AXIS ANCHORING ON A DEEP LOW OVER THE
SOUTH GEORGIA ISLANDS.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...ANCHORING ON AN OCCLUDED 964 HPA LOW AT
67S 92W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 978
HPA LOW AT 52S 91W...ALONG A 998 HPA LOW AT 52S 75W...48S
78W...45S 83W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT 44S 88W...38S 90W...TO 33S 96W.
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC...ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS BETWEEN
60W-20W...WITH POLAR FRONTS REVOLVING AROUND THIS AXIS. ONE
EXTENDS ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 42S 24W...37S 24W...A 1004 HPA LOW
AT 35S 29W...27S 34W...RIO DE JANEIRO... SOUTHERN MINAS GERAIS...A
1014 HPA LOW AT 20S 49W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 17S 53W...MATO
GROSSO-RONDONIA TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA/SOUTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU...WHERE IT TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION. POLAR RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH AT 29S 53W.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)