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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1341Z Nov 20, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM NOVEMBER 20 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OPEN CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
AXIS EAST FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN PERU...ACROSS AMAZONAS
IN BRASIL TO BAHIA/MINAS GERAIS. THIS IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS BRASIL TO THE NORTH OF 10S...WITH MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING
ACROSS PARA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS. SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS...OVER MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
STREAMING ACROSS PARAGUAY/ MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. THIS
IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARAGUAY-CHACO
ARGENTINO AND MATO GROSSO DO SUL IN BRASIL.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
54S 113W...A 143KT MAXIMUM AT 61S 91W...59S 77W...EXITING AT 54S
63W. IT REFORMS AT 55S 57W...ALONG 55S 39W...AND 62S 16W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 53S 100W...THEN ALONG 55S
79W...50S 73W...EXITING AT 41S 76W. IT REFORMS AT 33S 70W...ALONG
37S 58W...45S 50W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 41W...54S 28W...A 175KT
MAXIMUM AT 55S 16W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 37S
87W...ALONG 32S 83W...EXITING AT 28S 77W. IT REFORMS AT 27S
74W...ALONG 27S 67W...EXITING AT 29S 60W.

AT 500 HPA...A NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 90W TO 53S.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DRAKE
PASSAGE...ACROSS PATAGONIA/CYCLONIC MAXIMA NEAR PUERTO MONTT...33S
80W TO 27S 87W. THIS IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS CENTRAL
CHILE TO ARGENTINA...WHERE IT IS PROVIDING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 43W/40W TO 40S...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
EAST BOUNDS BETWEEN 32S 18W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 28S.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...CENTERING ON A 1029 HPA HIGH AT 39S 93W. THIS
FAVORS A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO THE ANTARCTIC
PENINSULA AND THE DRAKE PASSAGE. IN THIS FLOW...AN OCCLUDED 960
HPA LOW CENTERS NEAR 66S 95W...WITH A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH
EXTENDS ALONG A 976 HPA LOW AT 62S 77W...60S 79W...60S 89W...A 984
HPA LOW AT 60S 99W...57S 102W...AND 53S 108W. FATHER
EAST...ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A 972 HPA LOW AT 62S 29W...57S
27W...52S 33W...50S 40W...49S 49W...50S 57W...A 1004 HPA LOW AT
54S 68W...TO SOUTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. A THIRD FRONT TO THE
NORTH LIES ALOGN 47S 38W...45S 45W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 44S
52W...38S 51W...NRN URUGUAY TO NORTHWEST ARGENTINA. ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION IS BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A POLAR RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A 1013 HPA HIGH AT
41S 61W. EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC...A 1025 HPA HIGH AT 34S 31W
ANCHORS A RIDGE. A POLAR FRONT TO THE EAST LIES ALONG 42S
19W...34S 21W...28S 24W...A 1018 HPA LOW AT 25S 30W TO NORTHERN
ESPIRITO SANTO IN BRASIL.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)