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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1420Z Mar 03, 2015)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
920 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM MARCH 03 AT 00UTC): THE 200 HPA ANALYSIS
SHOWS BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CONTINENT...AS IT DOMINATES AREA TO THE NORTH OF 35S AND WEST OF
45W...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL BOLIVIA. AN
EAST-TO-WEST TROUGH BOUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE...WITH AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THE RIDGE-TROUGH
ALOFT ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF
BRASIL INTO PERU-ECUADOR AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR JET WITH
ENTRANCE AT 54S 94W...THEN ALONG 50S 65W...A 134KT MAXIMUM AT 53S
55W...57S 44W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 55S 25W...EXITING AT 48S 13W.
THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 47S 120W...A 139KT MAXIMUM AT 46S
115W...46S 104W...49S 93W...EXITING AT 48S 84W. IT REFORMS AT 44S
67W...ALONG THE SOUTH GEORGIA ISLANDS...43S 13W...AND 157KT
MAXIMUM AT 44S 02W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 31S
91W...ALONG 33S 79W...EXITING AT 40S 64W. IT REFORMS AT 47S
44W...ALONG 48S 33W...EXITING AT 44S 26W.

AT 500 HPA...TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES PREVAILS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
STREAMING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CONE. IN THIS FLOW...A STRONG
PERTURBATION IS INITIALIZED ALONG 102W TO 40S...WHILE ANOTHER IS
PULLING ACROSS PATAGONIA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHER SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS POPULATE THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...WITH ONE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 40S 77W TO 29S 87W. THIS IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS CUYO-CENTRAL PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PULLING
ACROSS 51W/52W TO RIO GRANDE DO SUL IN BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC THAT CENTERS ON A 1025 HPA
HIGH AT 33S 94W. A PROGRESSIVE FRONT TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM AN
OCCLUDED 978 HPA LOW AT 58S 93W...A 978 HPA LOW AT 55S 84W...52S
87W...A 984 HPA LOW AT 53S 92W...AND 45S 104W. A BROAD TROUGH
DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA...ANCHORING ON AN
OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 63S 75W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH
EXTENDS ALONG A 996 HPA LOW AT 54S 34W...52S 39W...A 994 HPA LOW
AT 51S 50W...45S 57W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT 45S 63W... NORTHERN
PATAGONIA-SOUTHERN CUYO...36S 73W...JUAN FERNANDEZ...29S 85W...AND
26S 96W. THIS FAVORS LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE. ANOTHER
FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM A 1004 HPA LOW AT 42S 50W...ALONG
38S 51W...TO BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE. A RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERS ON
A 1029 HPA HIGH AT 40S 27W. AN ELONGATED FRONT BOUNDS THE
EASTERN-NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...AS IT EXTENDS ALONG A
1014 HPA LOW AT 25S 21W...22S 26W...21S 33W...TO RIO DE JANEIRO.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)