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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1306Z Oct 22, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM OCTOBER 22 AT 00UTC): AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
200 HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS
PERU-NORTHERN BOLIVIA TO WESTERN HALF OF BRASIL. A TROUGH TO THE
EAST EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL TO THE NORTH
COAST/AMAZON RIVER DELTA REGION. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS
BUILDING BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...CLUSTERING ACROSS
TOCANTINS/GOIAS-WESTERN BAHIA IN BRASIL. OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST WAS BUILDING ACROSS AMAZONAS-ACRE TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA AND
MOST OF PERU EAST OF THE ANDES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST
ENTERED NORTHERN CHILE...TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA TO NORTHWEST PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA.
ANOTHER TROUGH FOLLOWS...WITH AXIS NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG 25S
80W...15S 85W...TO 10S 90W.

AT 250 HPA...THE JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH AXIS
ALONG A 132KT MAXIMUM AT 60S 120W...60S 101W...58S 87W...EXITING
AT 53S 73W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 37S 120W...THEN
ALONG 30S 112W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 28S 100W...34S 89W...A 151KT
MAXIMUM AT 41S 79W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 47S 64W...46S 55W...A
126KT MAXIMUM AT 43S 49W...39S 43W...EXITING AT 32S 38W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH HAS A FINGER OVER THE PACIFIC THAT
EXTENDS BETWEEN 22S 110W AND 22S 95W. IT REFORMS NEAR 22S
44W...ALONG 26S 31W...33S 14W...AND 40S 01W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 125W TO 55S.
THIS IS PRESSING AGAINST A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING A TIGHT
BELT OF MID/UPPER LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC T
THE SOUTH OF 55S. PROGRESSIVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS
FLOW...WITH ONE ALONG 110W AND ANOTHER ENTERING THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA. A HIGHER PERTURBATION TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM THE
ANTARCTIC PENINSULA...ALONG 57S 70W...50S 80W...TO 40S 90W. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIES BETWEEN 110W-85W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 25S... WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 37S 99W.
THESE ARE FOCUSING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE TO PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. UNDER INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST...AN INDUCED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
ARGENTINA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A
BROAD TROUGH LIES BETWEEN 50W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23S.

AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERS ON
A 1033 HPA HIGH AT 37S 121W. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH
AMERICA. POLAR FRONTS REVOLVING AROUND THIS TROUGH CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE DOMAIN...WITH ONE THAT EXTENDS ALONG A 970 HPA
LOW AT 68S 58W...62S 55W...57S 57W...54S 63W...A 998 HPA LOW AT
52S 69W...49S 69W...48S 74W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 45S 78W...41S
76W...TO 37S 82W. ANOTHER FRONT TO THE EAST AND NORTH LIES ALONG A
992 HPA LOW AT 55S 53W...54S 50W...51S 49W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 48S
46W...46S 42W...43S 44W...41S 49W...41S 54W...42S 59W...A 1002 HPA
LOW AT 45S 63W... NORTHERN PATAGONIA...PUERTO MONTT...A 1012 HPA
LOW AT 40S 75W...35S 79W...30S 87W...25S 95W...AND 21S 102W. THESE
COMBINE IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONE OF
SOUTH AMERICA. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...AS IT EXTENDS ALONG A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S
10W...33S 13W...30S 18W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 29S 23W...25S
27W...21S 31W...ESPIRITO SANTO... WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN SAO
PAULO-SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY. THIS SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
RIO DE JANEIRO/SOUTHERN MINAS GERAIS AND PORTIONS OF ESPIRITO
SANTO IN BRASIL.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)