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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1247Z Sep 30, 2014)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 30 AT 00UTC): THE UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE
EAST OF 63W...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 19S 592W. A
TROUGH TO THE WEST PRESSES AGAINST THIS AXIS...AS IT EXTENDS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PERU TO NORTHERN AMAZONAS IN BRASIL.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
42S 67W...ALONG 44S 49W...45S 34W...49S 19W...AND 50S 03W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 39S 120W...A 135KT MAXIMUM AT 31S
100W...EXITING AT 30S 80W. IT REFORMS AT 33S 72W...ALONG 38S
57W...EXITING AT 40S 36W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG 30S
120W...28S 102W...26S 90W...EXITING AT 22S 82W. IT REFORMS AT 20S
74W...ALONG A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 30S 60W...A 140KT MAXIMUM AT 33S
45W...EXITING AT 30S 30W.

AT 500 HPA...IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM LIES OFF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COAST OF
CHILE...WHILE A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM 40S 80W TO THE
BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-00W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 40S.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC...ORIGINATING ON A 1021 HPA HIGH AT 49S
83W TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM SUSTAINS A WANING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 1014 HPA LOW AT 43S 76W...ALONG A 1010
HPA LOW AT 44S 69W...40S 66W...35S 69W...AND 33S 72W. A BROAD
TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...ANCHORING ON AN
OCCLUDED 960 HPA LOW AT 62S 29W. POLAR FRONTS REVOLVE AROUND THIS
AXIS...WITH ONE THAT EXTENDS ALONG A 1006 HPA LOW AT 45S 34W...42S
34W...40S 39W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 39S 41W...34S 43W...TO RIO
GRANDE DO SUL IN BRASIL. AN OLD FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES ALONG A
1012 HPA LOW AT 35S 38W...31S 38W...27S 42W...PARANA TO
MISIONES/FORMOSA IN ARGENTINA. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)