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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1338Z Jan 23, 2015)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
838 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM JANUARY 23 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS OVER
NORTHERN CHILE NEAR 19S 70W...ANCHORING A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS BOLIVIA TO MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL...NORTHWEST
ARGENTINA/NORTHERN CHILE TO SOUTHERN PERU. A TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NORTH EXTENDS ALONG A CLOSED LOW AT 18S 38W...10S 45W...TO
NORTHWEST BRASIL. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CONTINENT TO THE NORTH OF 10S.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 47S
104W...THEN ALONG A 129KT MAXIMUM AT 52S 96W...A 126KT MAXIMUM AT
58S 83W...61S 67W...A 145KT MAXIMUM AT 65S 40W...A 170KT MAXIMUM
AT 60S 29W...EXITING AT 46S 24W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 40S 116W...ALONG 43S 103W...EXITING AT 51S 80W. IT
REFORMS AT 52S 72W...ALONG A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 59S 65W...61S
46W...54S 34W...A 136KT MAXIMUM AT 46S 29W...EXITING AT 40S 24W.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALONG 31S 120W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 37S
109W...38S 96W...39S 84W...40S 71W...EXITING AT 37S 65W.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM 70S
90W...ALONG 60S 100W...40S 110W...TO 30S 125W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE NORTHERN STREAM PRECEDES THIS AXIS...AS IT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN PATAGONIA TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA. A WEST-TO-EAST RIDGE
TO THE NORTH EXTENDS BETWEEN 20S-30S TO PARAGUAY/SOUTHERN
BRASIL...WHERE IT SUSTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION. ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH
ALONG 47W/48W TO THE WEDDELL SEA. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN 40W-00W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE POLAR FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ALONG A 974 HPA LOW AT 63S 51W...57S 49W...A 998 HPA LOW AT 55S
54W...51S 59W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT 48S 65W...45S 72W...A 1014 HPA
LOW AT 44S 78W...39S 77W...37S 85W...TO A 1014 HPA LOW AT 37S 89W.
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CENTERS ON A 1021 HPA HIGH AT 31S 81W.
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERS ON A 1025 HPA HIGH AT 39S 42W.
AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE EAST LIES ALONG A 1010 HPA LOW AT 40S
05W...33S 15W...28S 28W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 27S 40W...TO SAO
PAULO...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
DURAN...SENAHMI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)