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South American Synoptic Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1347Z Jan 30, 2015)
 
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SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM JANUARY 30 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN BOLIVIA...WITH AXIS
ENVELOPING NORTHERN PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA-PARAGUAY-SOUTHEAST
BRASIL. ALSO OVER THE CONTINENT...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 10S 41W TO THE GUIANAS. THE
TROUGH ALOFT FAVORS AN UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENT TO THE EAST OF 55W AND NORTH OF 20S...WHERE IT IS
INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
CLUSTERS NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE...BUILDING ACROSS BOLIVIA-SOUTHERN
PERU AND AMAZONAS IN BRASIL.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR JET EXTENDING
ALONG 52S 120W...49S 112W...49S 105W...55S 87W...56S 79W...60S
71W...63S 63W. IT REFORMS AT 65S 43W AND EXITS AT 58S 35W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR EXTENDS ALONG 48S 122W...46S 114W...46S 105W...47S
92W...49S 82W...53S 73W...57S 62W...59S 54W...56S 47W...51S
44W..42S 47W...EXITING AT 39S 47W. IT REFORMS AT 37S 45W ALONG A
141KT MAXIMA AT 42S 38W...A 144KT MAXIMA AT 50S 30W...A 165KT
MAXIMA AT 52S 17W...AND A 186 MAXIMA AT 46S 07W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORMS AT 31S 47W ALONG 33S 42W...43S 32W...46S 19W.

AT 500 HPA...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC
BETWEEN 120W-70W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S. THIS TROUGH IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE EAST...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS NORTH-TO-SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARGENTINA TO THE WEDDELL SEA. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS RIDGE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED LOW NEAR 48S 39W
TO RIO GRANDE DO SUL IN BRASIL. THIS IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACROSS SANTA CATARINA/SAO PAULO...WHERE IT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 986 HPA LOW AT 61S 73W EXTENDING A
FRONT ALONG 57S 70W...52S 74W...A 1002 HPA LOW AT 49S 80W...43S
81W. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN EXTREME SOUTHERN CHILE. A 1021 HPA
POLAR HIGH CENTERS AT 39S 57W. TO THE NORTHEAST...A 990 HPA LOW AT
39S 33W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 998 HPA LOW AT 34S 36W...28S
41W...25S 48W...MISIONES IN ARGENTINA...NORTHERN CORDOBA IN
ARGENTINA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN SOUTHEASTERN BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
DURAN...SENAHMI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)