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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1821Z Oct 14, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO CENTERED NEAR 20.3N
65.2W...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95KT AND MINIMAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 973 HPA. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
11KT. SEE NHC BULLETIN FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 14/00UTC: POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN USA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXITING THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATER ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONT...UNDER
INFLUENCE OF 25-35KT NORTHERLY SURGE...RACES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ LATER THIS EVENING. THE STRONG
NORTHERLIES THEN ACCELERATE TO 45-50KT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS-GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG WINDS ARE TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FRONT IS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA-SOUTHERN
GULF TO THE CAMPECHE SOUND/VERACRUZ EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-STRAITS OF FLORIDA/WESTERN CUBA-NORTHERN YUCATAN
TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATER ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FRONT LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE TAIL END OVER THE GULF WILL
START TO RETROGRESS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO PRECEDE THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. EARLY IN THE CYCLE IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO GUATEMALA...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO BELIZE/GUATEMALA. THIS
IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BECOMING ILL DEFINED
LATER IN THE DAY. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-GUATEMALA THE
STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS THE NORTHERLIES
WANE...IT DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER
BELIZE-NORTHWEST HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS
IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM...WHILE OVER WESTERN CUBA THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-40MM.

A 250 HPA HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS TO VENT THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
HIGH IS TO ANCHOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL
AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A TUTT LOW OVER HAITI EXTENDS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE GULF OF URABA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEAST
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA ARE TO REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN...WHILE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA THEY ARE TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA...AS THE ITCZ MEANDERS OVER THE
ISTHMUS...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. LIKEWISE...OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. BUT AS A 35-50KT JET MAXIMA ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 25-50MM LATER ON DAY 02.

THE NHC FORECASTS HURRICANE GONZALO TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN NORTH AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF
ADVANCING POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THE
RIDGE IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES/EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
EASTERN VENEZUELA. THIS IS TO THEN HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS CAP. AS A RESULT...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE
THE CAP INVERSION IS GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY...BUT NOT
SUPPRESS...THE DAILY/DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
43W     44W    45W    46W    47W    47W     DISSIPATES    TW
84W     86W    88W    90W    92W    94W     96W    97W    EW

THE NHC IS MONITORING THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 84W IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA-EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IT MERGES INTO PREFRONTAL
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/SHEAR LINE
CONVERGENCE. THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS-OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)