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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1106Z Oct 17, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
706 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW IS
LIFTING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
TRAILING TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF URABA. THIS IS PRESSING
AGAINST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO/USVI. AT MID LEVELS...SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS FAVORS A SUBSIDENCE CAP...TRAPPING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES NOW PREVAIL.

AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT RELOCATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH GRADUALLY ERODING. AT
MID LEVELS...HIGH/SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS TO MAINTAIN ITS FOOTHOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOSED HIGH MEANDERING OVER PUERTO
RICO/USVI. THIS IS TO NEGATE ANY FAVORABLE INFLUENCE UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN MIGHT HAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS IT IS TO SUSTAIN
THE SUBSIDENT PATTERN/TRADE WINDS CAP. AS MOISTURE CONFINES TO
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...PWAT DURING THE PERIOD IS TO RANGE BETWEEN
30-40MM. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH DIURNAL HEATING/NOCTURNAL COOLING
BREEZES TO DOMINATE LOCAL CIRCULATION.

ALTHOUGH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO PREVAIL...THE
GFS-UKMET AND HRWRF SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PUERTO RICO...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL
MODELS FORESEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN EVOLVES.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)