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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1823Z Aug 25, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE MARIE CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 114.8W...WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 932 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125KT.

AT 15UTC...TS CRISTOBAL CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 72.8W...WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50KT.

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 25/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT 250
HPA...A HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/NORTHWEST STATES OF MEXICO. RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS NEARLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH MIDDAY ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS AS A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. A TUTT BOUNDS THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE...WITH AXIS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
TO TAMAULIPAS. THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THIS IS TO WEAKEN TO A
SHEAR AXIS...BUT LATER ON WEDNESDAY A SECONDARY LOW IS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT DEEP
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE MARIE. THE NHC FORECAST
THE HURRICANE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF THE
ITCZ ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...TO EXTEND FROM
COLIMA/NAYARIT TO SOUTHERN CHIAPAS INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. TUTT
ALOFT IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ACROSS COLIMA/NAYARIT TO
GUERRERO EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAXIMA DECREASES TO 25-50MM. OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA-SOUTHERN CHIAPAS TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THIS DECREASES 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OVER
SINALOA-SONORA/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SPLITS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
TWO CELLS. THE WESTERNMOST ENVELOPS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-CUBA-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA. THE EASTERNMOST
CONFINES TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TS CRISTOBAL IS TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD... MOVING NORTH TOWARDS WARMER
WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC IS FORECASTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS IT MEANDERS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 50-75MM AND MAXIMA OF 125-250MM.

SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...UNDER INFLUENCE OF TS CRISTOBAL...AN
INDUCED/ INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF URABA TO
JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ON
TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CUBA...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AS THE INDUCED TROUGH INTERACTS
WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA INITIALLY EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES ARE UNDER INFLUENCE OF A TUTT THAT
ENTERED THE BASIN DURING THE WEEKEND. AT MID LEVELS THE TUTT LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE USVI WHILE AT 250 HPA IT LIES NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...EXTENDING A TROUGH SOUTH TO ARUBA/NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ AS IT
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. TUTT PATTERN IS TO
RAPIDLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WITH MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL AXIS. UNDER INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THE MID LEVEL LOW IS TO RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH VORTEX QUICKLY SHEARING AS IT
INTERACTS WITH TS CRISTOBAL. THE UPPER TUTT...MEANWHILE...IS TO
MEANDER WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN....WITH AXIS TO PULL ACROSS
VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN-PANAMA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BREACH TO THIS PATTERN
LATER IN THE DAY. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH UPPER LEVEL
CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT LOW
LEVELS...BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENVELOPS MOST OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...AS IT CENTERS ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 33N 31W.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE AND THE TS CRISTOBAL TO THE WEST...A
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING... WITH PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT IS TO FAVOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MOST ACTIVE...HOWEVER....IS EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLES WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER
VENEZUELA-EASTERN COLOMBIA...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...IT
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA TO SUSTAIN
ACCUMULATIONF OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. OVER
PANAMA-COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
30W     35W    39W    45W    49W    52W    55W     57W     TW
41W     45W    49W    54W    59W    63W    68W     73W     TW

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 30W.. THIS REACHES FRENCH
GUIANA LATER ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THIS IS TO ENTER THE
FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLES EARLY ON FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 41W TO 16N. THIS ENTERS FRENCH
GUIANA LATER ON TUESDAY...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS
SURINAME TO GUYANA. OVER NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLES EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N/16N...WHILE OVER VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA IN
INTERACTION WITH THE NET IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)