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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1823Z Oct 15, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE GONZALO CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 68.0W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115KT AND MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
949 HPA. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10KT. SEE NHC
BULLETIN FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 15/00UTC: PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH MOVES
TO THE EASTERN USA LATER THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH IS TO EXIT THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE USA LATER ON THURSDAY...WITH BASE OF THE
TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING THEREAFTER. AT LOW LEVELS...THIS SUSTAINS A
POLAR FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF A POLAR RIDGE TO THE NORTH...NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 25-30KT PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO...WITH A TEHUANTEPECER JET OF 40-45KT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR COLD WATER UPWELLING OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE SURFACE FRONT IS TO CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA-NORTHERN YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER THIS
EVENING. THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-STRAITS OF FLORIDA/WESTERN CUBA-NORTHERN YUCATAN
TO VERACRUZ/CAMPECHE SOUND. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA...WHERE IT IS
TO MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TRAILING
END...MEANWHILE...LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY
RETROGRESSES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO TEXAS LATER ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE FRONT SUSTAINS A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE...FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE
YUCATAN/BELIZE-GUATEMALA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IT THEN BECOMES
ILL DEFINED LATER IN THE DAY. THE STRONG FRONTAL NORTHERLIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO ARE TO CONTINUE FAVORING
TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ TO
NORTHERN CHIAPAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 100-175MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS THEN DECREASES TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM LATER ON THURSDAY. THE SHEAR
LINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS BELIZE-GUATEMALA IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT MEANDERS TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM...WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER WESTERN CUBA...FRONTAL
CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM...WHILE OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN CUBA EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM...WITH MOST ACTIVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

AT 250 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CHIAPAS/GUATEMALA IS TO
ANCHOR A RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE HIGH RELOCATES TO GUERRERO IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...WHILE THE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS MEXICO TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A TUTT LOW OVER HAITI/WINDWARD
PASSAGE OF CUBA EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE GULF OF
URABA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. NORTHEAST HONDURAS-NICARAGUA ARE TO REMAIN ON THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN...WHILE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA THEY ARE TO FAVOR A
DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA...AS THE ITCZ
MEANDERS NORTH OF THE ISTHMUS...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA/ANDEAN REGION...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA...MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE TROUGH
ALOFT IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. LOCALLY HIGHER
MOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

THE NHC FORECASTS HURRICANE GONZALO TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH
POLAR TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN USA. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY...ON ITS WAKE...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS IS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE CYCLE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS CAP...EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND 650 HPA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND AROUND 750/800 HPA
EARLY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES-VIRGIN ISLES. OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF
40MM...MODELS SHOWING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN A DIURNAL PATTERN...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
88W     90W    92W    94W     96W    97W   99W   101W      EW

THE NHC IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH A TUTT EAST OF THE ISLANDS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 88W/89W IS TO INTERACT WITH SURFACE
FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SUSTAIN
ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE CYCLE WITH ACCUMULATION OF
35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-175MM. AS IT MOVES ACROSS OAXACA TO
GUERRERO IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...MOST ACTIVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)