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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1030Z Mar 23, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
630 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MARCH
23/00 UTC. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...FAVORING A STRONG CAP INVERSION. AS THE RIDGE
HOLDS...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE TO STREAM FAR TO
THE NORTH...HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...CAP INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT MEANDERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO FAVOR GENERATION
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT IS TO THEN TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS POLAR RIDGE ROLLS INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE 850 HPA WINDS ARE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 LATER IN THE DAY...WITH
BRISK EASTERLY WINDS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED FAR TO
THE NORTH...THE STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE ALSO FAVORING
GENERATION OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VI-EASTERN PUERTO
RICO/SAN JUAN METRO AREA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PEAKING AT LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH.

DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 23/00 UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON..WPC (USA)