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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1821Z Sep 10, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

AT 15 UTC...TS ODILE CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 102.9W...WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1005 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT. THE
STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 03KT. SEE NHC BULLETIN FOR
DETAILS.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 10/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A RIDGE IS TO
EXTEND NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN USA. UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO PERSIST NEARLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THEN STARTS TO ERODE LATER ON FRIDAY AS A POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE USA. A TUTT LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS
ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. A LOW NEAR 21N
95W IS TO ANCHOR THIS AXIS EARLY IN THE CYCLE. UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...TUTT LOW IS TO RETROGRESS TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO LATER ON THURSDAY/EARLY ON FRIDAY...INTO THE CENTRAL STATES
OF MEXICO LATER DURING THE DAY. THE TUTT IS TO VENT DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA-SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE. OVER EL SALVADOR/ HONDURAS-SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING IT DECREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN VERACRUZ-NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TS ODILE...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN WHILE MODULATING THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
NORTH. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN JALISCO/COLIMA
AND GUERRERO...WHERE WE EXPECT DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE MAXIMA IS TO
INCREASES TO 250-350MM. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING WILL SUSTAIN
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 500-750MM OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.

A WANING TUTT CENTERS OVER THE BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW IS TO
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...WITH TENDENCY TO WEAKEN/FILL TO AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS OVER CUBA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...DRIVEN BY THE RIDGE TO THE WEST INTO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER ON FRIDAY. AT MID LEVELS...TUTT PATTERN
ALOFT SUSTAINS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
MEANDERS WEST INTO THE YUCATAN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EARLY IN THE CYCLE UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
BELIZE/YUCATAN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM ON THURSDAY.

FATHER EAST...AT 250 HPA...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ERODE AS A TUTT RETROGRESSES INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THE TUTT CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 26N 58W. THE TUTT LOW MOVES TO 23N 65W BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 70W-55W
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 32N. THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE TUTT LOW MOVES
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THIS IS TO THEN EVOLVE INTO A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF
THIS TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE TO PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. AT MID LEVELS...TUTT ALOFT REFLECTS AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN
THE CYCLE...RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO
EARLY ON THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THEN BUILD FROM THE
EAST...DISPLACING THE INDUCED TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CYCLONIC
VORTICITY...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED FAR TO THE NORTH NEAR UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE ISLANDS IS TO THEN
PHASE WITH THE TUTT INDUCED TROUGH (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS). UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST...WINDS
ARE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
FARTHER TO THE WEST...PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. PWAT IS TO RANGE BETWEEN 35-45MM OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE A DRYER AIR MASS IS TO
ENVELOP THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO THE
AMPLIFYING TUTT IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE
CYCLE TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THIS IS TO ALSO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/NET OVER NORTHEAST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN
GUYANA...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
34W     36W    38W    41W    42W    44W    46W     48W    TW
54W     58W    61W    64W    67W    71W    DISP        TW
85W     87W    90W    92W    94W    96W    98W    101W    TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON
THURSDAY. A SAL TRAILS THIS WAVE...WITH DRY/DUSTY AIR TO ENVELOP
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES AS THE WAVE MIGRATES WEST. IN
INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WAVE IS LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE LATER ON FRIDAY. OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES-PUERTO RICO IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILARLY ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA/ABC ISLES.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W...IN PHASE WITH TUTT OVER CUBA...IT TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. OVER BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA IT IS TO
THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
EARLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM ON THURSDAY TO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)