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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1120Z Aug 18, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
720 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. FORECAST AREA
REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FAVORS A
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN AND THE EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IN THIS
PATTERN...EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. CONVECTION...IF ANY...WILL LIMIT TO WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW THAT CENTERED
NEAR 15N 52W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TUTT LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY...AND NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO/VI EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS TO EXTEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUILDING RIDGE IS TO THEN DISPLACE
THIS TROUGH/LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST. AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...THIS IS TO REFLECT QUITE WELL AT LOW-MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHILE
FAVORING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. BUT
THE MOST ACTIVE IS GOING TO BE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN
MODELS AGREE ON WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)