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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1836Z Oct 27, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

BY 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N AND 83.2W.
IT WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35KT WITH GUSTS OF 45KT.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 27/00UTC: TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS RAPIDLY
MOVING OVER LAND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER LAND (SEE NHC FORECAST)...IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AS NORTHERLIES INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY.
EXPECTING LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
150-250MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE DURING TUESDAY...WITH LARGEST AMOUNTS THEN CONCENTRATING
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND ISLANDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ANTILLES INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. TO THE
NORTH...A TRAIN OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES ARE PROPAGATING EASTWARD IN
THE WESTERLIES. A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS THE POLAR TROUGH THAT
UNDULATED THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES DURING THE
WEEKEND...WHICH IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS IT WEAKENS. THIS TROUGH IS STARTING TO
PULL TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT PULLS...SURFACE FRONT IS LOSING UPPER
SUPPORT AND DEFINITION. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH PULLS
AWAY...EASTERLY TRADES WILL REESTABLISH AND INTERACT WITH
LINGERING REGIONS OF MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. BY MONDAY
EVENING...THESE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN
HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE CAYMANS AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. BY TUESDAY...MODELS LIKE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ADVECTING THESE AREAS
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS/NORTHERN NICARAGUA. BY
WEDNESDAY...MOST ACTIVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
YUCATAN/BELIZE/GUATEMALA INTO EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS AND NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
HONDURAS AND PARTS OF BELIZE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. BY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
BELIZE AND PARTS OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH MAXIMA OF
40-80MM/DAY. ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY. BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN YUCATAN WITH MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY.

ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...TUTT IS MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS
LIMITING ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION WHILE EXTENDING INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. TUTT IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD ALLOWING AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN
TO ESTABLISH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MONDAY EVENING. TUTT IS
TO THEN SLOWLY INTERACT WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...EVOLVING INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BEST VENTILATION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL SUSTAIN STRONGEST
VENTILATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS...FAVORING LARGEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND LIMITING AMOUNTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE FEATURES AIDING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE...AND AN
EXITING TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW). IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND CENTRAL ANTILLES WITH MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY. AFTERWARDS...MAXIMA IS TO DECREASE TO
30-60MM/DAY...WITH FOCUS FOR LARGEST AMOUNTS MEANDERING NORTHWARD.
ITCZ CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY
WEDNESDAY ACROSS TRINIDAD/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
GUYANA.

ACROSS COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...SEASONAL CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...RELOCATING TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND MOST OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL LEAD
TO MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY EARLY IN THE CYCLE...GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO 20-35MM/DAY BY EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
58W     59W    60W    61W    62W    63W    64W    64W    
TUTT-INDCD
61W     63W    65W    67W    70W    72W    74W    76W     TW

TUTT INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 58W. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD MODULATING PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE
FRENCH ANTILLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND ACROSS LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
THE CYCLE PROGRESSES.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WHERE...IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT...WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-40MM/DAY. THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE LARGER AMOUNTS
AS IT MOVES INTO VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA REACHING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY BY MID-WEEK.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)