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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1902Z Nov 14, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014

DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 14/00UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH AXIS
ENVELOPING MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO AND
THE GREATER ANTILLES. AT 250 HPA IT ANCHORS ON A CLOSED HIGH THAT
MEANDERS BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLES AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE BASIN...THIS IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR AN UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN.

POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. BUT VORTEX IS TO QUICKLY LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AS IT PULLS AWAY...ASSOCIATED
FRONT IS TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EARLY IN THE CYCLE IT IS
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA/THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMAULIPAS MEXICO. THROUGH MIDDAY ON
SATURDAY THE TAIL END RETROGRESSES TO TEXAS...WHILE REMNANTS OVER
THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA MOVE TO THE NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS IS TO
FAVOR LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY. OVER MEXICO...MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON
THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A MODIFYING POLAR RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY TO THE SOUTHEAST USA BY
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH/RIDGE MOVES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS IS TO THEN TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES-EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SURGE. AT
850 HPA THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 25-30KT OVER THE
WINDWARD/VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS
RIDGE...A SHEAR LINE IS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/EASTERN CUBA...TRAILING ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
NICARAGUA LATER ON FRIDAY. THIS MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA LATER ON SATURDAY WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. BUT EARLY ON SUNDAY IT BECOMES
ILL ORGANIZED. THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA-THE TURKS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA ON FRIDAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER NORTHEAST
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA IT IS TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT POLAR PERTURBATION IS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN TO THE
CENTRAL USA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS A STRONGER
PERTURBATION THAN THE FORMER... AND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BASE OF
THE TROUGH IS TO BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FRONTAL LOW ACROSS
TEXAS LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE FRONT TO SURGE INTO THE GULF
TO TAMAULIPAS EARLY ON MONDAY. LATER IN THE DAY...AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT...THE FRONT IS TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ON THE NORTHEAST STATES OF
MEXICO THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM LATER ON SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE ACROSS VERACRUZ-CENTRAL MEXICO AND OAXACA IT IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ON
MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

FARTHER EAST...ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...A TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES TO VENEZUELA/ABC
ISLANDS. TUTT IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...IS TO REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
ITCZ AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA/ORINOCO DELTA REGION IN
VENEZUELA. ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS IS TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...WHILE ON THE
FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GRENADINES-TRINIDAD/TOBAGO-NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
GUYANA...WHERE ITCZ CONVERGENCE IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH SUNDAY THIS
DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. FARTHER
WEST...ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS COSTA RICA-PANAMA IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE OVER
THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
31W     34W    37W    40W    42W    44W     46W   48W     TW
57W     59W    62W    64W    66W    69W     72W   75W     TW

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 31W. THIS IS TO CONFINE
TO THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W IS TO INTERACT WITH TUTT ALOFT AS IT
ENTERS THE WINDWARD ISLES/ORINOCO DELTA EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. MEANWHILE...OVER VENEZUELA... IN INTERACTION WITH THE NET
AND THE TUTT ALOFT IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)