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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1144Z Feb 24, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
644 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SUSTAINING A CAP
INVERSION WHILE TRAPPING MOISTURE TO LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR FRONT EXITED THE EASTERN USA...TRAILING
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE EAST...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE FAVORS A BRISK
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IRREGULARLY SPACED CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

AT MID LEVELS...SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN USA TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO GRADUAL
EROSION OF RIDGE PATTERN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN.
ALTHOUGH TO WEAKEN TO THE WEST...RIDGE IS TO MAINTAIN ITS FOOTHOLD
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO
PERSIST. AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR FRONTS ARE TO CONFINE TO NORTH
AMERICA/WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO
PREVAIL...A WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN EARLY ON THURSDAY. AT 850 HPA THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 15-20KT EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
25-30KT BY THURSDAY AM.

AS THE TRADE WIND EASTERLY PREVAIL AND STRONG MID LEVEL CAP
INVERSION DOMINATES...EXPECTING LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME-TO-TIME. MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS ARE TO GENERALLY CONFINE TO WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)