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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1108Z Aug 26, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
708 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RETROGRESSING TUTT NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
TO THE MONA PASSAGE. AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE BASIN THIS FAVORS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS VENEZUELA...WHILE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ITS EFFECTS LIMIT TO WIDELY ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR PUERTO RICO-SAINT CROIX. AT LOW LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC FAVORS A LONG FETCH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO PEAKING AT
40-45MM PER SATELLITE DERIVED ANALYSIS.

BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO RAPIDLY DISPLACE THE TUTT WEST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH AXIS TO CROSS 70W EARLY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...IN A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THIS IS TO RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CELL BUILDING OVER SAINT CROIX ARE TO LIFT ACROSS VIEQUES TO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO PEAK BETWEEN 10-15MM. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MID MORNING
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WHERE WE EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO TO THE WEST OF
DORADO/TOA BAJA AS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
SHOWING FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS...GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE
DOWNPLAYING THIS POSSIBILITY. BUT WITH DEEP LAYER MOIST ADVECTION
IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY. EXPECTING CELLS TO
CLUSTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST DURING EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

IN A PROLIFIC ENVIRONMENT...ANOTHER TUTT IS TO RETROGRESS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY. IT IS TO THEN MEANDER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WHEN A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AND
DISPLACES THE TUTT WEST. AT MID LEVELS IT IS TO REFLECT AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS MIGHT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY. BUT AS
PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE BASIN...THE MOST ACTIVE IS
TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND EL
YUNQUE RAINFOREST. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WHEN A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS TO ENTER
THE FORECAST AREA.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)