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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1200Z Apr 15, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM APRIL
15/06UTC: MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERING OVER WESTERN CUBA EXTENDS INTO
THE REST OF THE NORTHERN ANTILLES AND IS SUPPORTING A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE CAP. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHEAST  OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS AN AXIS TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FRENCH ANTILLES. AT SAN JUAN...THE SOUNDING
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 650 HPA BUT ALSO SHOWS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
ENTRAINMENT DOWN INTO THE 850 HPA BY CONVECTION INSIDE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER WITH THE
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWER.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE SCENE AND
STRENGTHENING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THIS WILL SUSTAIN AND
STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE REGION WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DETACH FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
FRENCH ISLANDS. THIS WILL START ENHANCING SHOWERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. YET...EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE
FORECAST HORIZON THAT EXTENDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)