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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1149Z Nov 24, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
649 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FAVORING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SUSTAINS A BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS THAT
ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOUD
CLUSTER TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS TO THEN
SLOWLY EBB LATER ON TUESDAY. AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IT IS TO FAVOR SHALLOW CONVECTION...WITH MOST ACTIVE LIKELY
TO CLUSTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. DRYER CONDITIONS
ARE TO THEN RETURN.

A TUTT IS TO THEN BRIEFLY MAKE AN INCURSION ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...TO THEN PULL AWAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST FLATTENS. AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN A SUBTROPICAL
JET ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH IS TO MOVE JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH DIVERGENCE ON ITS LEFT EXIT (INDIRECT CIRCULATION)
TO ENVELOP THE NORTHERN VI/PUERTO RICO. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS EARLY ON
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DOWNPLAYING THIS POSSIBILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE TUTT ALOFT IS
GOING TO BE DEEP ENOUGH THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES IS TO FORM ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. BUT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAR TO THE EAST.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)