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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1119Z Sep 29, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA/PENINSULA-SOUTHEAST USA. EAST OF THIS AXIS...A DEEP LOW
CENTERS OVER THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. THIS EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SOUTH TO AROUND 25N. A WANING TUTT LOW LIES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS LOW IS SLOWLY PHASING WITH
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUSTAINS A BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES-PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDS IN THIS FLOW...WITH
AXIS ALONG 46W/47W EARLY THIS MORNING. PER SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS...BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N...WHILE A PWAT MINIMA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
LIFTS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH
AXIS ALONG 24N/25N. THIS IS TO NEAR 60W EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...A TUTT IS TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN/OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. FORECAST AREA IS TO
THEN REMAIN ON CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE/TUTT PATTERN. LATER IN
THE WEEK...MODELS FORECAST THE TUTT TO LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL THEN LEAD TO A SLOW...BUT
GRADUAL...EROSION OF CAP INVERSION AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. TROPICAL
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER ON TUESDAY...AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS TO FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT
AMOUNTS...BEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED FAR TO THE SOUTH. LATER IN
THE WEEK...MODELS SHOWING HIGHER PWAT AMOUNTS ENVELOPING THE
FORECAST AREA AS TUTT ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE USVI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN A PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON THE
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. LATER IN THE WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
AS TUTT PATTERN ALOFT EVOLVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE IS GOING TO BE ON FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)