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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1137Z Feb 25, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
637 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR TROUGH
EXITING THE EASTERN USA CONTINUES TO LIFT OVER BROAD RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLED FAR
TO THE NORTH...AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
AS A BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS RIDGE
SUSTAINS A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH EMBEDDED CLOUD CLUSTERS STREAMING
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES WIDELY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS
PELTED THE VI-EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AXIS TO ANCHOR ON A
CLOSED HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS LATER ON
THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A STRONG CAP
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC IS TO ALSO HOLD ITS GROUND...WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS TO DOMINATE. A TRADE WIND SURGE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY...AND LATER
IN THE DAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IT REACHES THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO
RICO. AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
LIKELY TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE
SOUTH...AFFECTING SAINT CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PR. RAPID
EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL THEN FOLLOW THE WIND
SURGE...WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO LIKELY FAVOR
GENERATION OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH
EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL STREAMER TO
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO GENERALLY PEAK AT 00-05MM IN PASSING
SHOWERS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)