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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1241Z Oct 28, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR TROUGH
IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA...YET A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LINGERING FROM BERMUDA INTO NORTHERN HAITI.
THIS TROUGH IS SEPARATING TWO UPPER RIDGES...ONE THAT CENTERS OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND
ANOTHER THAT EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A TUTT EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH ITS
DIVERGENT SIDE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS HAS GENERATED A
TUTT-INDUCED WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO 20N 57W. SIMULTANEOUSLY...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE ISLA MARGARITA REGION...WHILE
INTERACTING WITH TUTT.

MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING TUTT INTERACTING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. BY TUESDAY EVENING TUTT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN HISPANIOLA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO MEANDER SLOWLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORM AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE WINDWARDS THAT IS TO SLOWLY MEANDER
NORTHEASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO TRINIDAD...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH
THURSDAY TO THEN START WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE TUTT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER PUERTO RICO USVI
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MOST
MARKED INCREASE WILL BE NOTED HOWEVER LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WHEN TUTT-INDUCED WAVE WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST...WE ARE EXPECTING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGESTING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AS BEST VENTILATION REMAINS
WELL TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UNDER 10-15KT
NORTHEASTERLIES...EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PEAKING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH TUTT NEARBY...WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CORDILLERA AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN REGIONS OF
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
CONCENTRATING IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)