Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center
 
Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1650Z Sep 29, 2014)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 29/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...WEST OVER THE
DOMAIN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO-GULF TO THE
YUCATAN. UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO. MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST STATES...WHERE IN
INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTING ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. OTHER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO-GUATEMALA-EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM AS THE RIDGE ALOFT VENTS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE YUCATAN...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH OVER WESTERN CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
RIDGE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ONE OVER MEXICO/THE GULF...IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...NEARING 60W LATER IN THE CYCLE. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A
TUTT IS TO EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO
NICARAGUA/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS... THE TUTT IS TO
BECOME NARROW AN ELONGATED...WITH A TUTT LOW TO FORM NORTH OF
COLOMBIA LATER IN THE CYCLE. AT 500 HPA...A HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
FAVORS A TRADE WINDS CAP AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT. MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CUBA. AS IT PULLS AWAY... TRADE WINDS CAP
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL START TO WEAKEN...WHILE OVER
CUBA-JAMAICA-CAYMAN ISLES-THE BAHAMAS IT IS TO STRENGTHEN.

THE TUTT...AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS TO
INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA TO PANAMA. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
IT IS TO ALSO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ACROSS JAMAICA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLES EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON TUESDAY.
OVER COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA... INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS A LOW FORMS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THIS
INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
48W     51W    54W    57W    60W    64W    68W    71W     TW
82W     84W    86W    88W    90W    92W    94W    96W     TW
95W     97W    99W   101W   103W   105W   106W   107W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GUIANAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE WAVE ENTERS THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AS A RESULT ONLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO ONLY EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NET OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA. ACROSS
EASTERN-CENTRAL VENEZUELA IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE ACROSS NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/SANTANDERES COLOMBIA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ...IS TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLES...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. AS IT MOVES ACROSS EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS ON TUESDAY IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE OVER
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
VERACRUZ/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...WITH FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION
SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. HIGHER
AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
GUERRERO-OAXACA...WHERE IN A BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)