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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1129Z Feb 26, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
629 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...SUSTAINING A STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE TRAVERSES THE ATLANTIC FROM
EAST-TO-WEST...CROSSING JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO
THE BAHAMAS/FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SUSTAINS A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH WIDELY
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS PESTERING THE VI-EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EARLY THIS MORNING.

BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS...TO HELP SUSTAIN CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ALSO HOLD...AND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
EXPECTING A TRADE WINDS SURGE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS TO REACH THE VI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND MAXIMA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE TO THEN PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN INCIDENCE OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ONLY SHOWING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AFFECT THE VI-PR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING CURRENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)