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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1047Z Apr 23, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM APRIL
23/06 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DOMAIN REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE IS TAKING A BEELINE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
TO PRECEDE THIS WAVE. ON ITS WAKE...THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES...REACHING MAXIMUM STRENGTH LATER DURING THE WEEKEND. AT LOW
LEVELS...RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS TO SUSTAIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS NOW FORECAST
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...TO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. PWAT DURING THE PERIOD
IS TO RANGE BETWEEN 25-35MM...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION.

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORESEE MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION HAVING
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH ALL
AGREEING ON TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BOTH VERSIONS OF THE HRWRF
SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH NMM VERSION SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION BETWEEN ARECIBO AND AGUADILLA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN
TROUGH ALOFT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. IF IT HAPPENS TO ARRIVE
DURING MAX HEATING WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTH COAST...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SO TIMING THE WAVE ALOFT IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
THE DAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECTING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)