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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1158Z Mar 26, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MARCH
26/00 UTC: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO AND DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONTINUES
SUSTAINING SEASONALLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP AND DRY AIR AT
MID-LEVELS. A POLAR TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE EXTENDING ALONG 50W-52W AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N. THIS TROUGH
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG
26N. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTH...THE LARGE SCALE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALLOWING FOR 10-20KT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI UNDER A SUBSIDENCE CAP.

SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS POTENT POLAR TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG
AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT TRAILS EAST OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH WILL THUS SUSTAIN A STRONG SURFACE
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH IT
IS TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL ALONG 20N ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL START INCREASING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS STARTING SUNDAY. HOW THE FRONT EVOLVES
AND AFFECTS THE ISLANDS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)