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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1838Z Oct 29, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 29/00UTC: WET PATTERN IS REESTABLISHING IN
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN.
FIRST...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING AS EASTERLY TRADES ARE
REDEVELOPING. THIS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO BELIZE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY. OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT OF MOIST AIR WILL PEAK DURING
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-100 IN THE SAME REGION. A NEW NORTHERLY SURGE WILL
DEVELOP AFTERWARDS. THIS WILL SWEEP MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LEADING TO
LARGEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/EASTERN
GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN BELIZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH MAXIMA OF
40-80MM/DAY.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ARE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE A
TUTT-INDUCED TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHERE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL INDUCE
FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOP SEVERAL FRONTS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO FORECAST TO ESTABLISH...TO START
AFFECTING EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL BE
MODULATED BY TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLOMBIA INTO THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS WILL REACH 30-60MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND 20-40MM/DAY ACROSS PANAMA. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA
INTO COSTA RICA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
48W     50W    52W    55W    58W    61W    63W    64W     TW
57W     59W    61W    64W    67W    69W    71W    72W     EW
62W     63W    65W    STATIONARY            TUTT-INDCD
69W     71W    73W    75W    76W    78W    80W    81W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE
GUIANAS LATE ON THURSDAY TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-25MM/DAY.

SMALL EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 57W. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

TUTT INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 62W. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHEN IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
MEANDER BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...ITS EFFECTS IN
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED AS IN INTERACTS WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN
VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THEN SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE WEEKEND.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)