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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1136Z Nov 17, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
636 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. DIGGING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO THE EASTERN USA/SOUTHEAST
CANADA. FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...FAVORING A BRISK EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.

ALOFT...THE POLAR TROUGH IS TO LIFT OVER THE STRONG CELL OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE...HOWEVER...IS FORECAST TO HOLD ITS
GROUND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A CAP
INVERSION AND FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A TUTT TO THE EAST TO CONFINE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGE IS TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST WHILE
YIELDING TO POLAR FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN USA LATER THIS
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. BUT GRADIENT IS TO REMAIN
TIGHT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE FAVORING BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH 850 HPA WINDS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 20-25KT
DURING THE NEXT FIVE-TO-SEVEN DAYS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO PESTER THE VI-EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME-TO-TIME. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE
UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICK THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND HOW A MEANDERING TUTT TO THE EAST EVOLVES. TUTT...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE THE FEATURE OF CONCERN AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)