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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1056Z Oct 14, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. HURRICANE
GONZALO IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION CLUSTERING FAR TO THE NORTH. OUTER RAIN BANDS NOW FAVOR
LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. BUT
THIS IS TO QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES AWAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DIVERGE ON IMPACT
OF THIS RAIN BANDS...WITH THE NMM VERSION OF THE HRWRF ONLY
SHOWING MAXIMA OF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ARW VERSION SHOWS MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES CLUSTERING ACROSS NORTHERN
THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND ENSUING SUBSIDENCE ON ITS
OUTER PERIPHERY. WE ARE OPTING FOR THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AS
SUGGESTED BY THE ARW...WITH MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS ENHANCED BY DIURNAL HEATING LATER THIS MORNING.

AS GONZALO MOVES AWAY...MODELS FORECASTING A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEN
HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE
WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...WINDS ARE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP INVERSION IS GOING TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DELAY...BUT NOT SUPPRESS...THE DAILY/DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO. IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH
PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO CLUSTER
ON THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)