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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1102Z Apr 11, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
702 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...SUSTAINING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH
OF 23N...WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST SUSTAINING LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD CLUSTERS EMBED IN THIS FLOW...WITH
ONE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD TO THE VIRGIN ISLES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING LIGHT SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...THEN STARTS TO ERODE
FROM THE EAST AS A TUTT LOW NEAR 30N 60W EXTENDS A TROUGH TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THROUGH TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE THE RIDGE REALIGNS TO THE WEST
ALONG 72W/73W. AS THE RIDGE ERODES...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...LIFTING ABOVE 700/650 HPA BY THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE IS TO THEN POOL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING PWAT OF 30-35MM IN LIGHT
EASTERLY TRADES.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CLUSTERING ALONG THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF MESO SYNOPTIC
FORCING THIS IS TO ONLY SUSTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING MAXIMA OF LESS THAN
20MM IN SHALLOW CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GDI.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)