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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1116Z Oct 01, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. AT
LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAIN EAST OF THIS AXIS...WITH
DRY/DUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SUSTAINING TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW
LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE USVI TO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY IT MOVES TO THE MONA PASSAGE. PWAT WITH THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40-45MM...BUT A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS TO FOLLOW EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SAL TRAILING
THIS WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. AS MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION IS TO
GENERALLY PERSIST...THIS WAVE IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MODELS ONLY FORECASTING TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. BUT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW...THE MOST ACTIVE IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY-TUESDAY...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AS THE SAL ENVELOPS
THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)