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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1110Z Sep 02, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ALOFT...A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.
THIS IS PROVIDING THE VENTILATION ALOFT TO DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE STREAMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOCALIZED RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 1-3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME HOSTILE TO
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
RIDGE ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTING WEST AS THE WEEK WEARS
ON. AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES...AN UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN IS TO
ESTABLISH...STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS CAP. ON
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION LIMITING TO PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS TO ENTER THE VIRGIN ISLES LATER ON
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CROSSING PUERTO RICO BY FIRST
LIGHT ON FRIDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A TUTT MOVES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF THE TRADE WINDS CAP.
ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON EVOLVING PATTERN...THEY DIVERGE
ON HOW INTENSE IT IS GOING TO BE. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH FAVOR A
DEEPER MOIST POOL TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION AS IT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRYER. CURRENT
PWAT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ECMWF MIGHT BE UNDERESTIMATING
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO LEANING TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS-UKMET SOLUTION. AS THE WAVE IS TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS...EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION TO
CLUSTER ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN AND SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)