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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1151Z Mar 03, 2015)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL WAVE PATTERN DOMINATES. WEST
OVER THE DOMAIN...A LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE CENTRAL USA. EAST OF THIS AXIS...A POLAR TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PHASING WITH A TUTT TO THE
SOUTH...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES/NORTHERN LEEWARD TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN...WITH DEEPER LAYER INSTABILITY CONFINING TO THE
FRENCH-WINDWARD ISLES. AT LOW LEVELS...BRISK EAST-NORTHEAST
EASTERLY TRADES PREVAIL...WITH POLAR FRONT CONFINING TO NORTH OF
30N. ALTHOUGH FAR TO THE NORTH...THIS SUSTAINS A PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING COASTAL CONVECTION.

SURGING POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA IS TO PRESS AGAINST THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO FLATTEN WHILE RELOCATING TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH CLOSED HIGH TO SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA LATER
ON THURSDAY. AT 250 HPA A TUTT IS TO BOUND THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS RIDGE...TO MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTING
STRONG TRADE WINDS CAP TO PERSIST...WITH MOISTURE CONFINING TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

AT LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING HIGH TO ROLL TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATER TODAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT AND FAVOR A WIND SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
DURING THE DAY...WITH 850 HPA WINDS TO INCREASE FROM 15-20KT EARLY
IN THE CYCLE TO 25-30KT LATER ON WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SURGING TRADES ARE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER ON FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONG TRADES ARE TO CONTINUE FAVORING
GENERATION OF CLOUD CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE ARE TO FAVOR LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES-NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY CONFINE TO THE CORDILLERA OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)