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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1238Z Apr 22, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
838 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE LARGEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND IN LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI CONTINUE INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY CONDITIONS INSIDE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING REGION OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE
TRADES REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE REGION OF ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN ORGANIZING
ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES WILL ONLY EXPAND INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN CURRENT DRY PATTERN LIMITING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.
EXPECTING ISOLATED LIGHT AMOUNTS.

A POTENT AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE USA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MODULATE CURRENT SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. YET...WHILE THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE WEAKENED
FRONT AND ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THESE REGIONS WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IT THUS APPEARS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)