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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1119Z Jul 30, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW TO
THE NORTH NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 66W...ANCHORING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS A STRONG MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AND AS A RESULT IT IS
INDUCING A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE
INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG 62W/63W TO 22N. SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP ITCZ MOISTURE TRAILING
THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING AROUND 50MM. LOWER
AMOUNTS EXTEND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...PEAKING
AROUND 30-35MM. THIS WOULD BE  ENOUGH TO FUEL SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ACTIVE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE INDUCED
TROUGH PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO-MONA PASSAGE AND PWAT INCREASES TO
40-45MM. IN RESPONSE TO INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE...THE GFS AND
UKMET BOTH FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH BOTH SHOWING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
MANATI-AGUADILLA/MAYAGUEZ.

UPPER PATTERN IS TO THEN EVOLVE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH TUTT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TO RETROGRESS AS THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AS IT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ NEAR 44W. THE METEOSAT RGB
PRODUCT SHOWS A DUST CLOUD NORTH OF THIS CENTER...WITH POSSIBLE
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EVOLVING CIRCULATION. THE NHC EXPECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES WEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRAJECTORY. 

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)