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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1147Z Nov 21, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PER PWAT ANALYSIS...BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FRENCH-WINDWARD ISLES. THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO AT LOW
LEVELS...A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES NOW EXTENDS
JUST WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST IS TO BLOCK THE TUTT JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE TUTT IS TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THEN EXPAND/BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS CAP WHILE
SUSTAINING A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT LOW
LEVELS... THE TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IS TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE ECMWF NOW FORECASTS
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO
DURING THE DAY TODAY INTO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY... SHOWING PWAT
PEAKING AT NEARLY TWO INCHES. AS A RESULT...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
AGREE ON MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND POTENTIALLY THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...WITH MAXIMA
RANGING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 2.0 INCHES. OTHER CONVECTION IS TO THEN
CLUSTER ALONG THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ARW VERSION OF THE HRWRF DEPICTS THIS EVOLUTION QUITE
WELL...WHILE NMM VERSION OF THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH THIS PATTERN.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)