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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1720Z Oct 30, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS LOCATED AT 11.5N 100.9W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AT 1007 HPA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TO THE WEST AT 5KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT 30KT WITH GUSTS
OF 40KT. SEE NHC FOR FORECAST ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 30/00UTC: WET PATTERN CONTINUES
REESTABLISHING IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND YUCATAN AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE GULF OF CAMPECHE. FURTHERMORE...LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SUSTAIN SEVERAL
SURFACE FRONTS AND DEVELOP A NEW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
NORTHERLIES/NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. AS DEEP MOISTURE
HAS RETURNED...EXPECTING ONCE AGAIN AN EPISODE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO GUATEMALA/NORTHERN
HONDURAS. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM/DAY. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS CONCENTRATING ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS/SOUTHERN BELIZE INTO GUATEMALA. BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-150MM
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS...DECREASING AFTERWARDS.

CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS WEAKENING AS UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS AND TUTT-INDUCED WAVE MOVES AWAY. EXPECTING STILL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE VORTICES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL SURFACE
FRONTS AND A LARGE SCALE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN/GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
ALSO SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHEAR LINE...THAT BY THURSDAY
EVENING WILL START TO ESTABLISH OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS/CENTRAL
CUBA/GULF OF HONDURAS. BY FRIDAY EVENING...IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA. BY SATURDAY
EVENING...IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO COSTA
RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA/GULF OF HONDURAS...BUT A
NEW SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY PUSH A
SECONDARY FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEAN TIME...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHEAR
LINE...ESPECIALLY REGIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT BECOMES
IMPORTANT. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA/JAMAICA WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/EXTREME NORTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED LARGER AMOUNTS ARE
ALWAYS POSSIBLE IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ACROSS
JAMAICA...ENHANCED UPLIFT UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE ISLAND. ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...EXPECTING SCATTERED
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO COLOMBIA (SEE BELOW) WILL MODULATE
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. EXPECTING MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM/DAY ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO PARTS OF PANAMA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ACROSS PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA
RICA...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY EXTENDING FROM EXTREME WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO COSTA
RICA. AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE AFTERWARDS...AS STRONGEST CONVECTION
CLUSTERS WITH APPROACHING SHEAR LINE. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...DRY MID-LEVELS
ARE LEADING TO A DECREASE IN AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH ITCZ CONVECTION AND
WAVES IN THE TRADES WILL BE PRESENT...EXPECTING MAXIMA TO
CONSTRAIN TO 15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
52W     54W    57W    60W    63W    66W   DISS            TW
60W     63W    65W    67W    70W    73W    75W    78W     EW
64W     STATIONARY                                       
TUTT-INDCD
73W     75W    77W    79W    81W    83W    84W    85W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE AT 52W WILL ENTER THE GUIANAS LATE ON THURSDAY TO
PRODUCE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-25MM/DAY. THE WAVE WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING SIMILAR AMOUNTS...TO THEN
DISSIPATE WHILE INTERACTING WITH DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

SMALL EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

TUTT INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W. THIS WAVE IS TILTED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE WEEKEND.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)