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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1830Z Apr 23, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 23/00UTC: DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ACTIVATING
ACROSS MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST RAIN-PRODUCING
ACTIVITY IS COMPRISED BY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA/HONDURAS. TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS.
DURING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY EXPECTING DIURNAL STORMS TO PRODUCE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

TAIL OF FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS WEAKENING. AS
LARGE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...EXPECTING A STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. THESE WILL REACTIVATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION TO SUSTAIN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
IT APPEARS THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OF LARGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...THUS EXPECTING LIGHTER AMOUNTS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL PEAK DURING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO PRODUCE
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY DECREASING AFTERWARDS.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECTING RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA CONTINUE EXPERIENCING
SEASONALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE CYCLE AS WELL AS UPPER VENTILATION...AS THE
REGION LIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
UPPER RIDGE. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DOMINATE THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE ANDES AND PACIFIC BASIN/GOLFO
DE URABA IN COLOMBIA. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON DAY 01
DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER. EAST OF THE ANDES EXPECTING MAXIMA IN
THE ORDER OF 20-40MM/DAY.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)