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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1827Z Sep 02, 2014)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AT 15 UTC TS DOLLY CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 96.5W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14KT.

AT 15 UTC TS NORBERT CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 12KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 02/00UTC: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE USA. RIDGE PATTERN IS TO REMAIN WELL ENTRENCHED
THROUGH DAY 3...WHEN IT IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER SINALOA
MEXICO. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TS NORBERT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES OF MEXICO. BETWEEN NAYARIT AND GUERRERO EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM
THEREAFTER. LATER ON THURSDAY/EARLY ON FRIDAY....FOCUS OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WHERE THE
STORM IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-100MM.

TS DOLLY IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHEAST MEXICO EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...TO SUSTAIN HEAVY CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
100-200MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 400MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CLASHES WITH THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. DURING THAT PERIOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE TO
35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...A TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE CENTERING ON A DEEP/CLOSED
LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS PRESSING AGAINST THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WHILE SUSTAINING A 35-40KT WIND
MAXIMUM ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA.
THIS...IN-TURN...SUSTAINS A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN ALOFT...
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO DISPLACE THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHERE IT IS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AT MID LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO SUSTAIN A WELL ORGANIZED
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-CUBA-THE BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. THIS IS TO ALSO MOVE WEST TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL
AMERICA AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. INITIALLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-TURKS AND CAICOS AND CUBA...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. AS THE TUTT
WEAKENS...MAXIMA DECREASES TO 20-40MM LATER ON THURSDAY. OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLES EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE OVER JAMAICA THIS IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER COLOMBIA AND THE ITCZ OVER PANAMA/COSTA
RICA. ACROSS NORTHERN-WESTERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA THIS IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO COSTA RICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

EAST OF THE TUTT...A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ENVELOPS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO MIGRATE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS A TUTT AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EARLY
IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUT AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST...AN UPPER
CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN IS TO BRIEFLY ESTABLISH... FAVORING A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND. THIS IS TO EXPAND INTO NORTHERN
GUYANA-VENEZUELA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SUSTAINING A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. AT LOW LEVELS...A HIGH
SOUTH OF BERMUDA ANCHORS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING CLOSED HIGH MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION IN THE USA. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE
WIND SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUT AS THE HIGH
RELOCATES...AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS...WINDS ARE TO DECREASE TO
25-35KT TO 15-20KT. THE OPPOSITE TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...WHERE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TO SUSTAIN A
TRADE WIND SURGE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
51W     54W    58W    61W    63W    66W    68W    70W     TW
67W     71W    74W    77W    81W    85W    88W    91W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN BY MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO IS TO THEN TRIGGER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM LATER ON
THURSDAY. ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE
TUTT TO THE WEST IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS EASTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)