THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 00Z WED APR 23 2014 - 00Z WED APR 30 2014

EXPECT MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
INITIALLY TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER
HIGH SETTLING TO THE N ALONG 30-35N LATITUDE.  THIS HIGH IS FCST
TO WEAKEN AROUND LATE SAT-SUN AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.  DURING SUN-TUE THERE IS SOME
SPREAD FOR THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH... WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MOST
AMPLIFIED AND 00Z GEFS MEAN THE FLATTEST.  AS A RESULT THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHEST SWD.  AT THIS TIME THE BEST INTERMEDIATE
SOLN ALOFT WOULD BE A COMPROMISE AMONG THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF MEAN WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC
FRONT POSN A LITTLE SWD OF THE GFS.  GENERALLY WINDWARD-FOCUSED
RNFL SHOULD BE MOSTLY LGT-MDT AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.00-1.25
INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD... THOUGH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT
IS PSBL GIVEN VARYING DEGREES OF WEAKNESS ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND.

RAUSCH





Last Updated: 752 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014