The Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion




Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 AM EDT Wed Apr 01 2015

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 02 2015 - 00Z Thu Apr 09 2015

In the large scale there is reasonable similarity among most of
the guidance at the surface and aloft but important medium to
smaller scale differences persist.  Most solutions aside from CMC
based guidance expect moderate to brisk trades with primarily
windward focused showers for most of the period as high pressure
will be positioned to the north or northeast of the state.  Around
Thu-Sat there are still some differences between GFS runs and
other models/means.  The GFS is a little farther south versus
consensus with a compact upper low that forms to the northwest of
the islands and also develops a couple northeastward moving mid
level impulses that help to lift greater amounts of deep
moisture/rainfall northward into the islands relative to most
other guidance.  The 06z GFS has trended closer to the majority
cluster for the upper low but still depicts the mid level impulses
over the islands.  For now would prefer to lean away from these
less confident aspects of the GFS.  Beyond the weekend there is
better agreement with a trend toward lower precipitable water
values as mean flow aloft becomes northwesterly/weakly cyclonic.

Rausch





Last Updated: 811 AM EDT Wed Apr 01 2015