HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
606 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
 
VALID 00Z SUN NOV 08 2009 - 00Z SUN NOV 15 2009
 



TRADES REMAINING IN THE MODERATE RANGE INTO EARLY MON...THEN
BECOMING BRISK TUE-WED ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A SUPER N PACIFIC HIGH
SINKING SLOWLY SE. THE MODERATE FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
BRING THE USUAL SHOWERS TO WINDWARD TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THESE
SHOWERS MAY BECOME ENHANCED MON-TUE AS THE UPPER SYS NOW NW OF THE
ISLANDS DRIFTS EWD...TAPPING A PLUME OF HIGHER PWS SE OF THE
ISLANDS AND PULLING IT BACK NW OVER THE ISLANDS. THE  DETAILS OF
NEW MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING S TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUE
UNCERTAIN NEXT WED-FRI. THE OVERALL TREND OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS TO SHOW A POS TILTED SHEAR AXIS ALOFT OVER/SE OF THE
ISLANDS THU/FRI WHICH COULD SPLIT OFF INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW. FOR
NOW EXPECT A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF TRADE SHOWERS WED...WITH ACTIVITY
PERKING UP AGAIN BY THU/FRI AS HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES ALOFT FOCUS
OVER THE ISLANDS. OVERALL PRECIP THIS COMING WEEK WILL BE WETTER
THAN NORMAL.  

FLOOD
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