TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
156 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010
 
DISCUSSION FROM FEB 09/0000 UTC. PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA THROUGH 30-36 HRS...INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY 48 HRS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN ACCELERATE ACROSS 55W/57W
BY 72 HRS. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA IS
TO BLOCK THIS TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 25N DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BUT AS IT MOVES EAST OF 60W...AND AWAY FROM THE RIDGE...THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TO
20N. AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA-GULF TO CAMPECHE SOUND/VERACRUZ THROUGH 24 HRS. AT 36 HRS
IT WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA-NORTHERN YUCATAN TO TABASCO IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. A NORTHERLY
WIND SURGE OF 15-30KT IS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY 48 HRS THE FRONT IS TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS-EASTERN CUBA-CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO BELIZE/CAMPECHE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT 60 HRS IT WILL
TRAIL ACROSS HAITI-JAMAICA TO BELIZE...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT WILL
ENTER PUERTO RICO...TRAILING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA-JAMAICA TO BELIZE. AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
GULF...A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
BY 48 HRS THE SHEAR LINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
NICARAGUA. BY 60 HRS IT WILL REACH THE MONA PASSAGE-COSTA RICA. AT
72 HRS THE SHEAR LINE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS-PANAMA...AND THROUGH 84 HRS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE TRAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO COSTA
RICA.

UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS TAMAULIPAS
TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ THROUGH 30-36 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO
AFFECT NORTHERN OAXACA-TABASCO-CHIAPAS AND CAMPECHE...IT WILL
SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY
THROUGH 36-48 HRS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS BELIZE THROUGH 48
HRS...TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY... THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY BY 48-60 HRS.
OVER NORTHWEST HONDURAS-CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY BY 36-72 HRS. AT 72-84 HRS
THE MAXIMA WILL DECREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
CUBA...TO INCLUDE ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 10MM/DAY. ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE CYCLE.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR LINE...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER BOCAS DEL TORO IN WESTERN PANAMA-CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA
RICA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 10MM/DAY.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION IS TO ENTER NORTHWEST MEXICO
THROUGH 48 HRS...WITH WAVE TO ACCELERATE ACROSS TEXAS-NORTHERN
MEXICO BY 66-72 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS IT WILL SUSTAIN CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO/ SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 72 HRS...WITH
LOW TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS TO THE EAST THROUGH 84-96 HRS.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT...MEANWHILE...WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS IT MEANDERS INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF MOISTURE THAT
CONVERGES ON THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...TO AFFECT THE STATES OF
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA AND SINALOA/DURANGO. IN THIS AREA EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. MOST INTENSE IS
EXPECTED OVER SINALOA/WESTERN DURANGO WHERE THE MAXIMA WILL PEAK
AT 20-30MM. FURTHERMORE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2.5-3.0KM AT 42-60 HRS...TO
CONCENTRATE OVER EASTERN SONORA. EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15CM.

AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT 500 HPA THE
RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH THAT MEANDERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CABO
GRACIAS A DIOS. THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY
03. ON DAYS 04-05...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTHEAST USA. THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN
WILL SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE BASIN INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...THAT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS GOING TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION.

ONLY AREA WHERE THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. AT 250 HPA A TROUGH/TUTT
MEANDERS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS/WESTERN ECUADOR. AS THE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC...IT WILL SUPPORT A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT THAT
IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND FROM EJE
CAFETERO SOUTHWARD TO THE CAUCA VALLEY/ECUADOR BORDER...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. MOST
INTENSE... HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BORDER WITH
ECUADOR...WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. 

CORDOBA...ETESA (PANAMA)
HERNANDEZ...SENEAM (MEXICO)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)