TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
241 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
 
THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE SUSPENDED UNTIL MONDAY DECEMBER 1.
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED.

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 19/0000 UTC. THE MODELS SHOW A LARGELY ZONAL
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS MEXICO... THE
GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CYCLE AS A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN USA BY 24 HRS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL USA BY 48 HRS... THE BROAD
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
BUILD. 

AT THE SURFACE A FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ WILL DRIFT NORTH TO
THE NORTHWEST GULF/SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 24 HRS. A WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 36 HRS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COAST
THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REACHING SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA BY DAY 3. A WIND SURGE OF 20-30KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. AS THE WAVE/LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT... CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO BRAVO WILL INCREASE... WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY ON DAY 01... AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY ON DAY 02.  AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ ON DAY 3 WITH RAINFALL OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM/DAY. ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN ROATAN/LA
CEIBA AND SAN PEDRO SULA INTO PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN
BELIZE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY ON DAY 1 DIMINISHING TO MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY ON DAY 2. 

A 500 HPA HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
EAST TO WEST RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 72 HRS AS THE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS WEST ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO BY 72 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA-JAMAICA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN A DIURNAL PATTERN...WIDELY
ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF CUBA. 

AS THE SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSISTS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION IS LIMITING TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA. WITH CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA AND THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA...OVER THE
ANDEAN REGION AND PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. OTHER CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH WILL CONCENTRATE OVER AMAZONIA IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN... A TUTT INITIALIZED WELL NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. UNFAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT... AS THE
CONVERGENT/RIGHT EXIT REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS... IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10-15MM DAYS 01 AND 02
INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25 ON DAY 03. OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXPECT RAINFALL OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY EACH DAY.
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS/ORINOCO DELTA REGION...WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
20-45MM/DAY ON DAY 3.

CANALES...SMN (HONDURAS)
DANAHER...NCEP (USA)


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