THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014


THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON A CONSISTENTLY ROLL FOR THE ALASKA
REGION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. EVEN BETTER, THE MODEL HAS BEEN
SQUARELY CORRELATED WITH THE ECENS MEANS FOR SEVERAL CYCLES
NOW--ADDING TO THE ROBUSTNESS OF ITS SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP, SO HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM ITS MASS FIELDS. THE
OVERARCHING THEME IS AN INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED POLAR JET AS
HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING ONCE AGAIN DOES ITS THING. THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND STORMINESS--AND THAT
BEING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY NEXT WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY FLAT GRADIENTS OR OFFSHORE FLOW.


CISCO





Last Updated: 1240 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014