THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

COLLEGE PARK, MD


ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION




ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 12Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 09 2015


HAVE NOT SEEN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS THE
ALASKA REGION IN RECENT MEMORY--FOR ANY SEASON, LET ALONE WINTER.
AFTER THE BERING SEA CYCLONE SPLITS DAY 4, THE FLOW ALONG 60N
ACTUALLY GOES ZONAL--RARE FOR THAT LATITUDE. PERHAPS THE FOCUSED
STRETCH OF ZONAL FLOW IS HELPING TO MITIGATE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS. WHATEVER THE REASON, THE RARE ALIGNMENT IN THE GUIDANCE
RAISES CONFIDENCE FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE TREMENDOUSLY.
LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAEFS CAMP FOR DAY 4, AS THE EC CAMP IS
STILL PLAYING SLOWDOWN. THEREAFTER, SWITCHED TO THE ECENS MEAN TO
PRESERVE MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
HONOR CONTINUITY. AS THE FAIRBANKS WFO POINTED OUT IN-CHAT, THE
ZONAL WAVE WILL COME WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE LATER IN THE NEW WEEK.


CISCO





Last Updated: 118 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015