Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

(www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
  • vision, mission, & roles
  • partners & customers
  • products & services
  • value added by HPC forecasters
  • accomplishments & plans
2
HPC’s Vision & Mission
  • Mission statement:  to provide
    1) forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in
        support of the daily forecasting activities of the NWS and
        its customers, and
    2) tailored weather support to other government agencies in
        emergency and special situations.
  • Vision statement:
    to be recognized by the NWS field offices and other forecast groups as a center of excellence for:
    • facilitating collaboration
    • heavy precipitation forecasting
    • winter weather forecasting
    • medium-range forecasting
    • real-time numerical model
      diagnostics & interpretation
    • surface analysis
3
HPC:  a resource to field forecasters, other partners, and customers
    • starting point
    • second opinion
    • focusing mechanism
    • unifying influence
    • emergency backup
4
HPC’s Partners & Customers
  • NWS field offices:  WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs
  • other NCEP centers:  TPC, SPC, AWC, OPC, EMC, NCO, CPC
  • federal agencies:  DHS/FEMA, USA COE, FAA, NTSB, DoD, USBR,
                                                   USAID, USTDA, EPA, White House (Hurricane Mitch,
                                                   Y2K ICC, Inaugurations, September 11, 2001)
  • state agencies:  water resources, flood management, emergency services
  • media:  TV, radio, newspapers, wire services, Internet services
  • private sector: data vendors, forecast services, utilities, forensics, retailers,
                                           researchers
  • aviation: general aviation and others
  • academic community: atmospheric
                            sciences and other departments
  • international:  foreign met services,
                            media, civil defense, travelers
  • general public:  analysis & forecast
                             products, visits
5
HPC’s Products and Services
  • quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), excessive rainfall, river flood outlook, and heavy ice & snow guidance
  • medium-range guidance
  • model diagnostic discussions & associated graphics tools
  • surface analyses &
    Daily Weather Map
  • basic weather forecasts
  • Travelers Forecasts,
    Selected Cities Summaries
  • So. American & Caribbean
    prognostic discussions
    and training
6
Examples of HPC’s Emergency & Special Products and Services
  • Special forecasts for mid-West floods (USA COE & FEMA, 1993)
  • Presidential Inauguration support (1997, 2001)
  • Forecasts for Mexican & Guatemalan fires (USAID, 1998)
  • Y2K Information Coordination Center (White House, 1999-2000)
  • Recovery from terrorist attacks (White House, 2001)
  • Training of field forecasters in quantitative precipitation, medium range,
    and ensemble forecasting, as well as use of N-AWIPS workstations
  • Capitol Hill briefings on weather events/activities (Isidore, 2002)
  • Backup to NHC’s hurricane program
  • Real-time guidance track forecasts for NHC
  • Tropical cyclone prediction at days 6 & 7
  • Hurricane Liaison Team briefings
  • Precipitation statements in TPC Public Advisories
  • Public Advisories for formerly named
    tropical cyclones after landfall
  • Media interviews & press conferences
    (Bret 1999 at FEMA)
    (Jan 2000 east coast ice storm)
  • Weather support to Hurricane Mitch
    mitigation (USAID, 1998)
  • Winter storm summaries


7
Dissemination of HPC’s
Products & Services
  • AWIPS/NOAAPORT
  • Family of Services
  • Internet
  • Dedicated lines to other agencies
  • Telephone / television
  • Videoteleconferencing


8
HPC QPF verification
1-inch threat score
9
HPC QPF verification vs. the models
Day 1, 1 inch
10
Value added by HPC forecasters
 (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for
Tropical Storm Allison, June 2001)
11
Value added by HPC forecasters (Days 7 & 6)
12
Value added by HPC forecasters
(MSLP anomaly correlation placement at Day 5)
13
HPC Medium-range verification
North American MSLP forecast skill
14
HPC medium-range Tmax verification
Mean Absolute Error (all stations)
15
HPC medium-range Tmax verification
% reduction in Mean Absolute Error over MOS
Mar 2005- Feb 2006 (adjusted stations only) (Prelim vs. 00 UTC MOS)
16
FY2006 Accomplishments
  • Exceeded GPRA Day 1 QPF goal for 1.0-inch threat score of 0.28
    (HPC accuracy:  0.297)
  • Accelerated release of day 3 QPF from 21 to 20 UTC at field office request (Oct 11, 2005)
  • Supported development, approval, and implementation of QPF White Paper (approved by NWS Ops Committee on Jun 28, 2006)
  • Implemented gridded Excessive Rainfall Product at request of NWS WFO Tropical Hazards Team (July 10, 2006)
  • Began issuing suite of QPF, FOP, and Excessive Rainfall products in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) format (Aug 1, 2006)
  • Began issuing QPF graphics for the Tropics (Jan 17, 2006)
  • Implemented experimental winter weather impact graphics based on the SREF (Sep 15, 2005)
  • Completed first full year of the HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed
    • Enhancing forecaster training
    • Supporting field experiments
    • Evaluating advanced forecaster techniques
17
FY2006 Accomplishments
(continued)
  • Established back-up Hurricane Liaison Team capability with FEMA
    (inaugurated for 2006 hurricane season)
  • Established infrastructure and tested permanent back-up capability for TPC website (in place for 2006 hurricane season)
  • Began preparing Daily Weather Map daily instead of weekly for Internet dissemination (Mar 21, 2006)
  • Added daily 1930 UTC release of medium-range gridded forecasts based on 12 UTC models (Apr 14, 2006)
  • Enhanced air-quality support to EPA and air-quality decision makers
    (Jun 1-Aug 31, 2006)
    • Expanded coverage of daily narrative discussion on weather factors to include entire conterminous U.S.  (previous year:  only area east of Mississippi River)
    • Started providing air-quality briefings on demand to mid-Atlantic air-quality forecasters, in addition to previous Northeast U.S. air-quality managers.
  • Hosted visit and press conference by U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski
    (Jun 5, 2006)


18
HPC – FY2007 Plans
  • Achieve GPRA Day 1 QPF goal for 1.0-inch threat score of 0.29
  • Support evolving requirements of the NWS field offices in the digital era
  • Conduct WWD collaboration experiment with Intermountain WFOs
  • Implement experimental day 2 and day 3 excessive rainfall products
  • Conduct collaborative forecast exchange program with NWS field offices (QPF / Medium range)
  • Conduct training and test QPF backup with SPC
  • Test feasibility of LINUX laptop for operational backup


19
HPC – FY2007 Plans
  • Implement initial phase of the modernization of the Selected Cities and Travelers Forecast products in collaboration with MDL
  • Conduct International Desks visitor training
    (10 visitors minimum)
  • Continue to enhance QPF training materials through the HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed
  • Develop experimental PQPF products
  • Continue migration of HPC processes to the Compute Farm
  • Continue NCWCP floor space and transition planning
  • Implement new HPC/OPC organization/management structure